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Thursday, August 07, 2008

Buy Ford

Among the Good News coming out of Dearborn these days is a three-for-three above-industry-average score with the latest J.D. Powers dependability study. That's better than Toyota (whose Scion brand came out way below average). That's better than Nissan. That's better than the venerable Mercedes-Benz or Audi.

Shoot, Mercury came in second, just beating out Cadillac.

Only Volvo of all Ford brands came out below average: Volvo is a Johnny-come-lately to the Ford stable; It's still very much a foreign brand; Volvo sales making up just 3% of the Ford total. Can this be allowed to slide without unduly tarnishing the American triumph of the Blue Oval?

In the month of July 2008, when all is supposedly caving in on the U.S. automaker, Ford's total car sales grew by 8 percent. Overall car sales in the U.S. were flat. "Industry-wide small car growth" was "approximately 9 percent". By contrast General Motors car sales fell 12%.

Ford Focus sales were up 16% in July from a year earlier; 26% year-to-date. Fusion sales were up 14% July year-to-year; 12% year-to-date. Even the Crown Victoria contributed with a 39% jump in July sales. The European Focus is coming to North America in 2010, along with a couple other Ford European models, such as Fiesta.

But cars aren't the big news at Ford. Ford is a truck company not a car company. They still rely on trucks for 64% of sales. How could this be good news with such high gasoline prices?

First of all, oil prices are falling--a $30-per-barrel decline in just a couple of weeks. Secondly, they should continue to fall right on through the upcoming presidential elections in November (especially if it looks like the Democrats will win). Thirdly, pent-up demand. Fourthly, the F-150, the Escape, the Edge, and the Flex.

The F-150 is that it is the best selling vehicle in the United States. And has been for some time. And Ford's coming out with a new version this year.

Time to buy Ford. At just over $5 per share how can you go wrong.

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